After the storm and the strike, the US added 227,000 non-farm jobs in November, the largest increase in six months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% beyond expectations. Analysts said that the steady growth of non-farm jobs eased concerns about slowing labor market demand, confirming the Fed's view that the job market remains robust and is no longer the main source of inflation. However, the market will still focus on the rising unemployment rate and weak survey data in the United States, and increase the Fed's bet on interest rate cuts. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to more than 90%. In December, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence hit the highest level since April this year, and short-term inflation expectations rose to the highest level in five months.

Several senior Fed officials said that they tend to be cautious in cutting interest rates next. Hawkish director Bowman said that inflation progress seems to have stagnated and still believes that inflation is more worrying than the labor market. Goolsbee, a voting member next year and president of the Chicago Fed, said that he hopes that by the end of next year, the Fed will be close to the "end" of its interest rate policy. The president of the Cleveland Fed said that the rate cuts are approaching or reaching the point of slowing down, and the FOMC will have another chance to cut rates by the end of January when Trump is sworn in. Citigroup lowered its expectations for the Fed's rate cuts, predicting that it will only cut by 25 basis points in December, compared with the previous expectation of 50 basis points.

US President-elect Trump announced that he would appoint David Sacks, a well-known venture capitalist and Musk's close friend, as the first "AI and cryptocurrency czar" in the United States, and nominated former Republican Senator David Perdue as ambassador to China. Japan's basic salary increase in December hit a record high, further increasing the probability of a rate hike in December, and the yen rose. After the release of Canada's employment data, the country's six major banks agreed that the Bank of Canada would cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week, and the Canadian dollar fell by 1%.

S&P, Nasdaq, Meta, Amazon, Netflix, and Walmart hit new highs on Friday. The S&P rose for the third consecutive week, the Nasdaq rose more than 3% for the week, the Dow fell during the week, Tesla rose more than 5% to a three-year high, Qualcomm fell nearly 2% at one point, and the China Concept Index rose as much as 2% to lead the way:

Among the three major U.S. stock indexes, only the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell. The S&P 500 closed up 15.16 points, or 0.25%, at 6090.27 points, up 0.96% this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is closely related to the economic cycle, closed down 123.19 points, or 0.28%, at 44642.62 points, down 0.6% this week. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, closed up 159.05 points, or 0.81%, at 19859.77 points, up 3.34% this week. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.92%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the Nasdaq 100 technology industry components, closed up 0.73%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed up 0.54%. The VIX index of fear closed down 5.69% at 12.77.

U.S. stock industry ETFs rose and fell differently. The optional consumer ETF closed up 2.11%, the Internet stock index ETF rose 1.45%, the technology industry ETF, the global technology stock index ETF, the regional bank ETF, the banking industry ETF, and the semiconductor ETF rose by about 0.4% at most, while the medical industry ETF fell by about 0.6%, the global aviation industry ETF fell by more than 0.8%, and the energy industry ETF fell by 1.7%. This week, the Internet stock index ETF rose 5.54%, the optional consumer ETF rose 4.72%, the global aviation industry ETF rose 3.95%, the global technology stock index ETF rose 3.28%, the technology industry ETF rose 3.04%, the semiconductor ETF rose 2.68%, the biotechnology index ETF fell 0.18%, the banking industry ETF fell 1.71%, the regional bank ETF fell 1.73%, the financial industry ETF fell 1.83% to end the four-day winning streak, and the energy industry ETF fell 4.72%.

In terms of investment research strategy, Bank of America believes that the strong rise in the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrencies makes these asset classes look full of bubbles. Data shows that the price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index has soared to 5.3 times in 2024, close to the peak of 5.5 times reached during the peak of the technology bubble in March 2000. If the S&P 500 index approaches 6,666 points, about 10% higher than the current level, there is a high risk of "overshooting" in early 2025.

Most of the "Seven Sisters of Technology" rose. Tesla closed up 5.34%. Microsoft closed up 0.21%, and Amazon closed up 2.94%. Meta closed up 2.44%. Google A closed up 1.2%. Apple closed down 0.08%. According to reports, Apple plans to launch modem chips in three years to replace Qualcomm chips. Nvidia closed down 1.81%. According to reports, Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun used loopholes in the US federal estate and gift taxes to avoid taxes of $8 billion.

Most chip stocks rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 0.69%. Industry ETF SOXX closed up 0.6%. Nvidia's double-long ETF closed down 3.59%. Marvell Technology closed up 0.12%. Micron Technology closed up 0.3%, Broadcom closed up 5.31%, Arm Holdings closed up 2.13%, Intel closed up 0.58%, and ON Semiconductor closed up 1.19%. Synopsys closed up 0.39%. TSMC closed down 0.63%, AMD closed down 1.96%, and Qualcomm closed down 0.55%.

AI concept stocks rose across the board. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by Nvidia, closed up 12.6%, Serve Robotics closed up 23.82%, BigBear.ai closed up 18.18%, Palantir closed up 6.22%, BullFrog AI closed up 25.7%, and CrowdStrike closed up 0.22%. Salesforce closed up 0.17%, Snowflake closed up 0.32%, and AMD closed up 6.78%. The deadline for submitting annual reports was approved for postponement, and the stock once rose 3% after the market. C3.ai closed up 8.08%, Oracle closed up 2.93%, and Dell Technologies closed down 1.34%.

Most Chinese stocks closed up. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.98% at 6841.81 points, up 2.15% this week. Among ETFs, the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) closed up 3.39%, up 4.43% this week, continuing the performance of a 5.95% rebound last week; the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed up 1.38%, up 1.11% this week, and rebounded 3.44% last week; the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed up 1.04%, up 0.94% this week, and also rebounded 3.18% last week. The FTSE A50 Index Futures closed down 0.40% in the night session at 13390.000 points.

Among the popular Chinese stocks, Nature Pharmaceuticals closed up 222.86%, Fangdd closed up 5.36%, Zeekr closed up 3.26%, Zhihu closed up 3.2%, Ctrip closed up 2.77%, Alibaba closed up 2.12%, JD.com closed up 2.11%, NetEase closed up 1.03%, Pinduoduo closed up 0.9%, Baidu closed up 0.8%, while Li Auto closed down 0.93% and Bilibili closed down 0.93%.

Cryptocurrency concept stocks generally rose. Bitdeer Technology closed up 23.73%, Hut 8 closed up 9.29%. MicroStrategy, a "big Bitcoin holder" targeted by short sellers Citron, closed up 2.23%. The cryptocurrency "monster stock" Youdian Interactive closed down 71.14%.

Among other key stocks: (1) Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of the popular online brokerage Robinhood to buy after the brokerage introduced a rough growth plan. The stock price closed up 7.07%. (2) Alternative asset management giant Apollo will be included in the S&P 500 index, and its stock price rose 7% after the market. (3) Casual sportswear retailer Lululemon rose nearly 16%, Utah Beauty rose nearly 9%, and lingerie retailer Victoria's Secret rose nearly 12% to a two-and-a-half-year high, all of which were positive in the third quarter report and raised full-year guidance. Hewlett-Packard Enterprise rose more than 10% to a new high, and its fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations across the board. (4) AMC Theaters, a popular stock among retail investors, fell 9% and agreed to sell up to 50 million shares.

The pan-European index rose for seven consecutive days, and the German stock index hit a record high for five consecutive days, rising more than 4% this week. Despite the political uncertainty, French stocks closed up 1.31% on Friday, hitting a three-week high, and rose 2.65% for the week:

The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.18% at 520.47 points, up 2.00% this week. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 0.53%, up 3.61% this week. The FTSE pan-European blue chip 300 index closed up 0.13%, up 1.99% this week.

This week, in terms of sectors, the STOXX 600 Retail Index rose 5.77%, the Technology Index rose 4.91%, the Automobile and Parts Index rose 4.40%, the Travel and Leisure Index rose 4.14%, the Personal and Household Goods Index rose 3.85%, the Banking Index rose 3.59%, the Industrial Products and Services Index rose 2.81%, the Chemicals Index rose 2.56%, the Media Index rose 1.64%, the Financial Services Index rose 1.36%, the Telecommunications Index rose 0.94%, the Basic Resources Index rose 0.78%, the Healthcare Index rose 0.53%, the Food and Beverage Index rose 0.13%, the Real Estate Index fell 0.66%, the Utilities Index fell 0.88%, and the Oil and Gas Index fell 1.62%.

Germany's DAX 30 Index closed up 0.13%, up 4.02% this week. France's CAC 40 Index closed up 1.31%, up 2.65% this week. Italy's FTSE MIB Index closed up 0.36%, up 4.00% this week. The Dutch AEX index closed down 0.31%, up 1.13% this week. The UK FTSE 100 index closed down 0.49%, up 0.26% this week. The Spanish IBEX 35 index closed down 0.39%, up 3.70% this week.

Non-farm boosted market expectations of rate cuts, and U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield falling by more than 5.7 basis points this week. The two-year German bond yield fell by about 2 basis points on Friday, and the cumulative increase this week narrowed to less than 5 basis points:

U.S. Treasury: At the end of the trading day, the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell 2.52 basis points to 4.1510%, and plunged when the U.S. November non-farm payrolls report was released at 21:30 Beijing time. At 22:32 (the beginning of the U.S. stock market opening), it refreshed the daily low to 4.1260%, and fell 1.95 basis points this week. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 5.04 basis points to 4.0936%. After the release of the non-farm payrolls report, it plunged from 4.16% to below 4.08%, a cumulative decline of 5.74 basis points this week.

European bonds: At the end of the European market, the yield on the eurozone benchmark German 10-year government bond fell by 0.3 basis points, and rose by 2.0 basis points this week. The yield on the two-year German bond fell by 1.7 basis points, and rose by 4.9 basis points this week. The yield on the UK 10-year government bond rose by 3.2 basis points. The yield on the two-year British government bond rose by 3.8 basis points. The yield on the French 10-year government bond fell by 0.7 basis points, and the yield on the Italian 10-year government bond fell by 1.8 basis points.

After the non-farm payrolls, the US dollar plunged significantly but eventually turned to rise. Many banks expect Canada to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. The Canadian dollar fell nearly 1%. The euro fell after hitting a three-week high. The yen rose again above 150. The offshore RMB fell more than 200 points and fell below 7.28 yuan. The Korean won fell 0.5% on Friday and fell 1.8% for the whole week. Bitcoin futures rose 1.8% overnight after the non-farm payrolls and returned to above $100,000:

US dollar: The US dollar index DXY rose 0.24% to 105.968 points. It plunged significantly after the release of the US November non-farm payrolls report at 21:30 Beijing time. It refreshed the daily high to 106.159 points at 03:16, and rose 0.22% this week. The Bloomberg dollar index rose 0.23% to 1278.85 points. It quickly fell to 1272.92 points after the release of the non-farm payrolls report, and rose 0.31% this week. 

Non-US currencies: The US dollar rose 0.96% against commodity currencies, the Canadian dollar rose 1.02% this week, and the non-farm night (the Canadian employment report was also released) rose significantly. The euro fell 0.17% against the US dollar to 1.0568, and rose 0.15% this week. The pound fell 0.14% against the US dollar, and rose 0.44% this week. The US dollar rose 0.04% against the Swiss franc, and fell 0.48% this week. Among commodity currency pairs, the Australian dollar fell 0.97% against the US dollar, and fell 1.68% this week, and the New Zealand dollar fell 0.93% against the US dollar, and fell 0.99% this week.

Bank of America became the largest pound bull on Wall Street, and it is expected to rise 8% against the US dollar next year. The won fell to 1444.09 won against the US dollar on December 3 (the night of the "curfew farce"), a two-year low. Speculators' net short positions in the euro hit a new high since October 2021.

Yen: The yen rose 0.04% against the U.S. dollar at the end of trading to 150.04 yen. After the release of the non-farm payrolls report, it rose from around 150.60 yen to below 149.40 yen, and rose 1.00% this week.

Offshore renminbi (CNH): The offshore renminbi (CNH) fell 208 points against the U.S. dollar at the end of trading to 7.2843 yuan, and the overall trading range during the day was 7.2557-7.2870 yuan.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin, the largest leader in market value, closed at $102,000, up 1.81% from the New York closing price on Thursday, and a cumulative increase of 3.27% this week. In the past seven natural days, spot Bitcoin has risen by about 3.2% and is temporarily reported at $101,000. The second largest Ethereum closed at $4068.50, up 5.25% from Thursday, and a cumulative increase of 11.74% this week. Ripple XRP rose 3.70%, and a cumulative increase of 11.24% this week.

Despite OPEC+'s extended production cuts, oil prices fell for three consecutive days due to concerns about oversupply, with U.S. oil falling 1.17% and Brent oil falling 1%. Heating demand pushed New York natural gas to fall more than 8.5% this week: 

U.S. oil: WTI January crude oil futures closed down $1.10, or 1.61%, at $67.20 per barrel, with a cumulative decline of more than 1.17% this week.

Brent oil: Brent February crude oil futures closed down $0.97, or 1.34%, at $71.12 per barrel, with a cumulative decline of 1.00% this week.

Earlier, OPEC+ decided to postpone the start of the oil production increase plan by three months to April next year, and extended the deadline for the full cancellation of production cuts by one year to the end of 2026. Bank of America predicted on Friday that the growing oil surplus will push Brent oil prices to $65 per barrel in 2025, while predicting that oil demand growth will rebound to 1 million barrels per day next year.

Natural gas: U.S. natural gas futures closed down about 0.10% at $3.0760/MMBtu, a cumulative drop of more than 8.53% this week. At the end of the trading day, TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures fell 0.21% to 46.450 euros/MWh, a cumulative drop of 1.80% this week. ICE UK natural gas futures fell 0.16% to 115.820 pence/kcal, a cumulative drop of 3.14% this week.

The expectation of rate cuts caused the U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to fall during the session, which helped push up the gold price. The New York gold futures rose by more than 0.2% on the non-farm day, but it was in a downward trend this week:

Gold: COMEX gold futures rose by 0.23% to $2,654.50/ounce, and fell by 0.98% this week, and fell for most of the time. Spot gold rose by 0.07% at the end of the trading day to $2,633.80/ounce, and fell by 0.35% this week. It fell to $2,613.67 on December 4.

Silver: COMEX silver futures March contract fell by 0.11% at the end of the trading day to $31,500/ounce, and rose by 1.28% this week, with an overall upward fluctuation. Spot silver fell by 1.03% at the end of the trading day to $30.9880/ounce, and rose by 1.18% this week.

New York cocoa rose above the psychological barrier of $10,000 for the first time in history. U.S. CFTC data showed that gold bullish sentiment hit a four-week high in the week of December 3. Before OPEC+ decided to postpone the resumption of oil production, WTI crude oil bullish sentiment hit a three-week high. London industrial metals rose and fell, with zinc closing down more than 1.5%, and copper rising more than 1.2% this week: Copper closed up $48 at $9,122/ton, up more than 1.24% this week. COMEX copper futures rose 0.16% to $4.1990/pound, up 1.43% this week. Aluminum closed down $36, down more than 1.36%, at $2,604/ton. Zinc closed down $47, down about 1.51%, at $3,072/ton, down about 1.00% this week. Lead closed down $27, down more than 1.28%, at $2,072/ton. London nickel closed up $73 at $16,047/ton, up more than 0.90% this week. London tin closed down $14 at $29,151/ton, up more than 0.82% this week. London cobalt closed flat at $24,300/ton.

The following is the content updated before 23:30 on the 6th, Beijing time on the 12th

On Friday, U.S. stocks rose, and investors poured into technology stocks, AI concept stocks, and chip stocks:

The three major U.S. stock indexes rose. The S&P 500 index once rose more than 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is closely related to the economic cycle, once rose more than 158 points. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, once rose more than 0.7%.

Industry ETFs generally rose in early trading. The global aviation industry ETF and the optional consumer ETF rose by at least 1%, the regional bank rose by about 0.9%, the network stock index ETF rose by 0.7%, and the technology industry ETF rose by less than 0.3%, which lagged behind. The global technology stock index ETF fell slightly, and the semiconductor ETF fell by less than 0.1%, and the energy industry ETF fell by more than 0.4%.

The "Seven Sisters of Technology" rose generally. Amazon once rose by more than 1.7%, Meta once rose by nearly 1.9%, Google A once rose by more than 0.9%, Tesla rose by nearly 2.2% and then halved its gains, Apple once rose by more than 0.6%, Microsoft once rose by nearly 0.8%, and Nvidia once wiped out the 0.6% decline in early trading.

Most chip stocks rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once rose by more than 0.4%. Broadcom once rose by more than 1.8%, Wolfspeed once rose by more than 2.6%, ON Semiconductor once rose by more than 1.3%, Synopsys once rose by more than 1.1%, and TSMC once fell by more than 1.7%.

Most AI concept stocks rose. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by Nvidia, rose more than 8% before narrowing its gains. Serve Robotics once rose more than 21.7%, BigBear.ai once rose more than 18%, and CrowdStrike once fell more than 1%.

Most Chinese stocks rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index once rose more than 2%. Among the popular Chinese stocks, Nature Pharmaceutical once rose 260%, Junyu once rose 22%, Tuniu once rose 6.9%, Tiger Securities once rose more than 6.3%, JD.com once rose more than 4%, Alibaba once rose more than 3%, while Daquan New Energy once fell more than 7.3%, and Miniso once fell more than 2.7%.